Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES). | WTI Crude •11 mins | 80.57 | +1.23 | +1.55% |.

What’s Happening

West Texas Intermediate traded at $80.57 a barrel as of July 15, 2026, up 1.55% on the day, while Brent settled near $85.72. Prices have climbed sharply from the $74 level recorded on July 12, a roughly 9% move in three sessions driven by escalating US-Iran hostilities. For WTI Crude Oil (WTI) to hit (HIGH) $110 in July, the benchmark would need to rally another 36% from mid-month levels within roughly two weeks — a gap that leaves the contract heavily discounted despite the geopolitical premium already priced in. [OilPrice, Jul 15]

The recent surge followed President Donald Trump reimposing a naval blockade on all Iranian ports, with Tehran launching strikes on US energy targets and prices closing up 2% at a one-month high on July 14. Brent briefly touched $87 — its highest since June — amid a supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. However, gains moderated after Trump dropped a proposed Strait of Hormuz "reimbursement fee" that had been viewed as a breach of international norms, and after Iran confirmed its oil exports were continuing despite the July 7 cancellation of US waivers. That resilience in Iranian supply has tempered the odds that WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July. [Reuters, Jul 15]

Analysts note that the next sustained rally may hinge on Chinese demand rather than Middle East supply shocks, which have historically proved short-lived once shipping reroutes. With WTI near $80 and Brent in the mid-$80s, a move to $110 would require either a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows — or a demand shock, neither of which markets are currently pricing. Traders will watch whether Iranian export volumes hold, whether the blockade broadens, and how OPEC responds, with the OPEC basket last at $75.09. Barring a sharp escalation before July 31, the threshold remains distant. [OilPrice, Jul 15]

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