Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 84%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May. Currently, markets see this as likely (84% YES). Oil prices edged higher Tuesday as investors parsed fresh signals from U.S.-Iran negotiations.

What’s Happening

The probability that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will hit $110 in May has surged to 84% as of late April 2026, driven by a sustained blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations. On April 29, 2026, the global benchmark Brent crude for June delivery topped $115.43 a barrel, while WTI rose over 3% amid reports that little progress has been made in reopening the critical waterway for oil tankers. The impasse follows the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran, which closed the Strait and sent prices soaring from pre-conflict levels near $70 to current levels above $100. Analysts note that even if hostilities ended immediately, a return to normal market conditions would take months, according to Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. [CNBC, Apr 28]

The market's focus on whether WTI crude oil (WTI) will hit $110 in May reflects the acute supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes. On April 28, 2026, Brent crude topped $111 in Asian trade as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran failed to yield a breakthrough, with President Donald Trump and his national security team weighing next steps. The U.S. benchmark WTI has already breached $100, a level not seen since the early days of the conflict, but remains below the $150–$200 forecasts some analysts had predicted. Yi Ping Liao of Templeton Global Investments has stated that oil is seen above $110 in the near term, though a decline to $85 by year-end is possible if a resolution emerges. [CNBC, Apr 29]

The immediate outlook for WTI crude oil (WTI) hitting $110 in May hinges on whether the Strait of Hormuz impasse can be resolved in the coming weeks. On April 28, 2026, Politico reported that Trump has engaged in public "jawboning" to temper price spikes, but the physical disruption to tanker traffic remains the dominant factor. Market participants are now watching for any signs of a diplomatic off-ramp or a potential escalation that could push prices even higher. With Brent already above $115 and WTI trading near $100, the path to $110 appears narrow but plausible, contingent on continued supply constraints and the absence of a sudden de-escalation. [Politico, Apr 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $242K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 80c YES with $242K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.