Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Oil prices rise more than 2% as Israel moves further into Lebanon.

What’s Happening

WTI crude futures opened June 2026 at elevated levels following sustained geopolitical pressure across the Middle East. U.S. crude futures rose $2.37 or 2.71% to $89.73 a barrel on June 1 after Israel ordered troops to advance further into Lebanon in continued fighting with Hezbollah, despite a ceasefire announced more than six weeks earlier. By midday, WTI had extended gains to $93.59, up 7.13%, as President Donald Trump demanded changes to the Iran nuclear deal, intensifying market concerns about supply disruptions from the world's third-largest OPEC producer. The opening week of June positioned the contract roughly $26 below the $120 threshold referenced in the question of whether wti crude oil (wti) hit (high) $120 in june. [OilPrice, Jun 1]

Industry forecasts have shifted sharply higher since the Iran war began at the end of February 2026. A monthly Reuters poll on May 29 showed analysts raising 2026 oil price forecasts for the third consecutive time, citing a months-long timeline for energy flows to normalise to pre-conflict levels. At the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Exxon executive Chapman warned that dated Brent will likely shoot up to $150 to $160 levels due to low inventory, lifting energy equities and ETFs including BATL up nearly 7%, USO up over 2%, and UCO climbing. Whether wti crude oil (wti) hit (high) $120 in june depends on whether escalation accelerates the path already priced into forward curves, which currently sit well below supermajor warnings. [Yahoo Finance, Jun 1]

The gap between spot pricing near $93 and the $120 target implies a required move of roughly 29% within a single month, a magnitude rarely observed outside of acute supply shocks such as the 1990 Gulf War or the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Catalysts that could close that gap include a breakdown in Iran nuclear negotiations, direct strikes on Strait of Hormuz transit infrastructure, or a broader Israel-Hezbollah-Iran escalation. Counterweights include Trump's stated view on June 1 that Iran "really wants to make a deal," along with potential OPEC+ spare capacity releases and demand softening from elevated retail fuel prices. Traders are watching weekly EIA inventory data, OPEC+ communications, and headlines from Lebanon and Tehran for the next directional impulse heading into the June 30 settlement. [Reuters, May 29]

Traded on Polymarket — $78K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($78K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 10c YES.