Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 48%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May. Currently, markets are divided (48% YES, 52% NO). Oil extends gains with Brent at $120 as fears of an extended U.S.-Iran conflict rise.

What’s Happening

The probability that WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit a high of $120 in May has surged to 48% as of late April, driven by a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. On Thursday, April 30, 2026, global benchmark Brent crude spiked to a four-year high of over $126 a barrel before retreating, as markets priced in the growing likelihood of a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict. The surge followed reports that President Donald Trump had instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian exports, stoking fears of a protracted supply disruption in the Middle East. The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has closely tracked Brent's trajectory, with traders now betting heavily on whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit a high of $120 in May as the standoff shows no signs of immediate resolution. [Reuters, Apr 30]

The underlying driver of the price action is the unresolved diplomatic crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. On Tuesday, April 28, Brent crude hovered around $112 a barrel, a 4% hike, as traders weighed Iran's offer to reopen the strait against Trump's next move. Analysts noted that even if hostilities ended immediately, a return to normal market conditions would take months, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. The average U.S. gasoline price hit $4.176 per gallon that same day, up 20 cents from a month earlier, adding political pressure on the GOP ahead of midterm elections. The absence of a diplomatic endgame has kept the market on edge, making the scenario where WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit a high of $120 in May increasingly plausible as supply fears compound. [CNBC, Apr 28]

Looking ahead, the key variable remains the trajectory of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the potential for further military escalation. On Wednesday, April 29, analyst Yi Ping Liao of Templeton Global Investments forecast oil above $110 near term but falling to $85 by year-end, citing pronounced price volatility and an uncertain demand outlook. However, the immediate risk is skewed to the upside: Brent has doubled since the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran began on February 28, and the market is now pricing in a sustained disruption. The probability that WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit a high of $120 in May reflects this tension, with traders closely watching for any diplomatic breakthrough or, conversely, a further tightening of the blockade that could push prices decisively past that threshold. [CNBC, Apr 29]

Traded on Polymarket — $288K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 48c YES with $288K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.