AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 85c–90c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd48a..90 | MM | NO | $9.7K | +11% | |
| 0x9981..c4 | MM | NO | $4.3K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,174 on $14.1K capital deployed (avg +15.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $3.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |