Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 45%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May. Currently, markets are divided (45% YES, 55% NO). Oil extends gains with Brent at $120 as fears of an extended U.S.-Iran conflict rise.

What’s Happening

The probability that WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit $120 in May currently stands at 45%, reflecting a market deeply unsettled by the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. On April 30, 2026, Brent crude surged past $126 a barrel—a four-year high—while West Texas Intermediate crude rose approximately 90% since the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran began on February 28. The price spike is driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil passes, and a U.S. blockade of Iranian exports that shows no signs of easing. Traders on the Kalshi platform had earlier estimated a 63% chance that prices would cross $120 per barrel, though the current probability has since narrowed as markets weigh the potential for a ceasefire or further escalation. [CNBC, May 01]

The significance of the WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hitting $120 in May scenario extends beyond energy markets, as surging oil costs are now colliding with a resilient U.S. stock market. On May 1, 2026, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite opened at fresh record highs, buoyed by strong earnings from Apple and other major firms, even as Brent crude held near $120. The rally comes despite a more hawkish Federal Reserve and concerns that prolonged high oil prices could dampen consumer spending and corporate margins. Analysts note that the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate has doubled in price since late February, raising the stakes for the upcoming jobs data and earnings reports that investors will scrutinize for signs of economic strain. [Kitco, May 01]

Looking ahead, the path for WTI Crude Oil (WTI) to hit $120 in May hinges on diplomatic and military developments in the Middle East. On April 30, oil prices retreated slightly after hitting their four-year peak, as traders digested a Wall Street Journal report that former President Donald Trump had instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian exports, while nuclear negotiations remain stalled. Kalshi traders now see a more than 50% chance that prices will exceed $127 per barrel this year, far above the current closing high of nearly $113 recorded on April 7. The market is closely watching for any signs of a ceasefire or supply disruption relief, as a protracted conflict could push WTI past the $120 threshold and inflict deeper damage on the global economy. [CNBC, Apr 30]

Traded on Polymarket — $351K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 45c YES with $351K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.