Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES). Oil prices edged higher Tuesday as investors parsed fresh signals from U.S.-Iran negotiations.

What’s Happening

Oil prices have surged dramatically in recent weeks, with the global benchmark Brent crude hitting a four-year high of more than $126 a barrel on Thursday, April 30, before retreating. The spike is driven by escalating fears of a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict, following reports that President Donald Trump instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian exports. The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has also risen sharply, doubling in price since the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran began on February 28. This sustained rally has brought the possibility of WTI crude oil (WTI) hitting (high) $130 in May into sharper focus, as traders assess whether supply disruptions will intensify further. [Reuters, Apr 30]

The immediate catalyst for the latest price jump is the absence of a diplomatic resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. On Tuesday, April 28, oil edged higher as investors parsed fresh signals from U.S.-Iran negotiations, with analyst Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates noting that even if hostilities ended immediately, a return to normal market conditions would take months. By Thursday, April 30, Brent crude hovered around $120 a barrel, while the average U.S. gasoline price reached $4.176 per gallon, up 20 cents from a month ago. The sustained geopolitical risk has made the scenario of WTI crude oil (WTI) hitting (high) $130 in May a plausible near-term outcome, contingent on further escalation or supply cuts. [CNBC, Apr 28]

Looking ahead, analysts remain divided on the trajectory of oil prices. Yi Ping Liao of Templeton Global Investments projected on Wednesday, April 29 that oil would stay above $110 in the near term but could fall to $85 by year-end, citing pronounced volatility and an uncertain demand outlook. However, the immediate risk of a protracted Middle East supply disruption continues to support elevated prices. The probability of WTI crude oil (WTI) hitting (high) $130 in May currently stands at 28%, reflecting market uncertainty over whether diplomatic efforts or further military escalation will prevail. Traders are closely watching the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and any new moves by the Trump administration that could either ease or exacerbate supply constraints. [CNBC, Apr 29]

Traded on Polymarket — $166K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 28c YES with $166K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.