AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is 100% positioned NO with entries clustered at 85-89c, treating $130 WTI in May as a near-impossible tail event that's worth fading even at thin spreads. The absence of YES entries among tracked wallets is the louder signal: informed flow sees no asymmetric upside and is content to harvest the final 6c of decay rather than hedge against a black-swan oil spike.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9981..c4 | MM | NO | $25.1K | +6% | |
| 0xd48a..90 | MM | NO | $8.8K | +11% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,710 on $33.9K capital deployed (avg +13.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $3.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |