Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 23%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (23% YES).

What’s Happening

Traders on the Kalshi prediction market currently assign a 23% probability to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil hitting $130 per barrel during the month of May. This assessment comes amid a severe geopolitical crisis that has already driven prices to multi-year highs. On April 30, 2026, Brent crude touched a four-year high of over $126 a barrel, while WTI crude oil has surged roughly 90% since the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran began on February 28. The primary driver is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, which has created a protracted supply disruption that markets are now pricing in as a sustained risk. [Kitco, Apr 30]

The probability of WTI crude oil hitting $130 in May reflects the market's expectation that the conflict will continue to escalate or remain unresolved in the near term. According to a CNBC report on May 1, Kalshi traders estimated a 63% chance that prices would cross $120 per barrel this year, with a more than 50% probability of reaching nearly $127. These figures are far above the current closing high of roughly $113 per barrel recorded on April 7. Even if hostilities were to end immediately, analysts note that a return to normal market conditions would take months, keeping upward pressure on prices. [CNBC, May 1]

Looking ahead, the trajectory of WTI crude oil hitting $130 in May hinges on diplomatic developments and the Trump administration's next moves regarding Iran. On April 28, oil prices edged higher as investors parsed fresh signals from U.S.-Iran negotiations, with uncertainty over a potential de-escalation keeping markets on edge. The average U.S. gasoline price had already climbed to $4.176 per gallon on that date, up 20 cents from a month prior, signaling broader economic pain. Analysts warn that more hikes are coming, and the absence of a diplomatic endgame that frees up the Strait of Hormuz could push WTI crude oil to the $130 threshold. [Axios, Apr 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $271K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 23c YES with $271K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.