Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). Oil extends gains with Brent at $120 as fears of an extended U.S.-Iran conflict rise.

What’s Happening

As of late April 2026, the probability that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will hit a high of $140 in May stands at 16%, reflecting deep market skepticism despite a dramatic surge in global prices. The benchmark has already climbed sharply since late February, when the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran that effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. By April 30, Brent crude had touched a four-year high above $126 per barrel, while WTI futures traded near $98—a level not seen in years but still far from the triple-digit territory that would be required for the WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $140 in May scenario to materialize. The gap between current spot prices and the $140 target underscores the market's view that a sustained supply crisis of that magnitude remains unlikely within the month. [Reuters, Apr 30]

The primary driver of recent price action is the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict, which has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 28, reports emerged that President Donald Trump had instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian exports, while stalled nuclear negotiations further fueled supply fears. Analysts at Lipow Oil Associates noted that even an immediate ceasefire would require months to restore normal market flows. By April 30, Brent had retreated to around $120 after hitting its four-year peak, as traders weighed Iran's diplomatic overtures against Trump's next moves. For WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $140 in May to become reality, the conflict would need to escalate significantly—either through a direct attack on Saudi or Iraqi infrastructure, or a prolonged closure of the Strait—pushing WTI above its current $98 level by more than 40% in just weeks. [CNBC, Apr 30]

Looking ahead, the market's 84% probability against the $140 threshold reflects both the high bar for such a spike and the potential for de-escalation. Political pressure is mounting: Politico reported on April 28 that the White House has been actively "jawboning" oil prices, with Trump publicly criticizing forecasts of $150–$200 crude as unrealistic. Meanwhile, early Asian trading on April 26 saw WTI futures rise 1.9% to $96.18, suggesting continued upward momentum but at a pace far below what would be needed to hit $140 by May 31. Key variables include whether Iran accepts the Hormuz offer reported on April 28, and whether the U.S. escalates its blockade. For now, the consensus among traders and analysts is that while a WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $140 in May outcome is not impossible, it would require a confluence of extreme events—a full Hormuz closure, a major supply outage, or a panic-driven buying frenzy—that current fundamentals do not support. [Politico, Apr 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $181K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 16c YES with $181K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.