Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 13%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (13% YES). Oil prices edged higher Tuesday as investors parsed fresh signals from U.S.-Iran negotiations.

What’s Happening

As of early May 2026, prediction market data indicates a 13% probability that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will hit $140 per barrel during the month, with an overwhelming 87% of traders betting against that threshold. This market assessment comes amid a backdrop of elevated but stabilizing oil prices, following a period of intense volatility driven by the U.S.-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While WTI prices have retreated from their post-conflict peaks, they remain significantly above pre-war levels, with Brent crude hovering near $112 a barrel in late April and the national average gasoline price climbing to $4.176 per gallon, according to AAA. The current probability for a $140 spike in May reflects a market that sees a sustained risk premium but is pricing out the most extreme "black swan" scenarios that some analysts had previously forecasted. [Axios, Apr 28]

The 87% "NO" probability on WTI crude oil hitting $140 in May is significant because it suggests traders are largely dismissing the possibility of a renewed, dramatic supply shock within the month, despite ongoing geopolitical fragility. This contrasts with earlier, more aggressive bets on the Kalshi platform, where users had assigned a 63% chance that prices would cross $120 per barrel this year and a better-than-even probability of exceeding the Iran wartime high of roughly $127. The current market structure implies that while the risk of a supply disruption remains elevated—particularly given the uncertain status of the Strait of Hormuz and the slow pace of diplomatic normalization—traders do not see a catalyst powerful enough to drive a 25% price surge from current levels to $140 within the next few weeks. Key variables include the Trump administration's next moves on sanctions and the timeline for restoring normal shipping traffic through the critical waterway. [CNBC, May 01]

Looking ahead, the trajectory for whether WTI crude oil can hit $140 in May will depend heavily on the resolution—or escalation—of the U.S.-Iran situation. Oil analyst Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates noted that even an immediate ceasefire would require months for market conditions to normalize, keeping a floor under prices. Meanwhile, the broader financial context shows equities hitting record highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their best month since 2020, which could signal that investors are rotating away from commodity hedges. The 13% probability for a $140 spike effectively prices in a low-probability, high-impact event—such as a sudden re-imposition of sanctions or a military incident that re-closes the Strait—but the consensus view is that May will see prices remain elevated rather than reaching catastrophic levels. [CNBC, Apr 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $230K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 13c YES with $230K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.