Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). Monday - Friday: 12:00 - 13:00 SIN/HK | 0600 - 07:00 CET.

What’s Happening

The question of whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July comes as the benchmark trades well below that threshold. WTI Crude changed hands near $69.47 on June 30, 2026, down 1.81% on the day, with prices hovering in the $69–70 band through the final sessions of the quarter. Crude is heading for its biggest quarterly drop since the pandemic, having retreated from an April peak above $126 that was driven by the Iran conflict and fears of a disruption to global oil flows. For WTI to reach $80, front-month prices would need to climb roughly $10, or about 15%, within the month. [Oilprice, Jun 30]

The market backdrop has shifted decisively from supply-shortage fears to concern about oversupply. Analysts have cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, ending five straight monthly increases, after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased supply concerns, according to a Reuters poll. A preliminary US-Iran agreement and a pickup in tanker traffic through the strait—which carries roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade—have returned prices to about prewar levels. Morgan Stanley and other banks have trimmed projections as the risk premium unwinds, a dynamic that weighs against the odds that WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July. [Reuters, Jun 30]

Looking ahead, strategists frame the near-term path as essentially a "Strait of Hormuz trade," with free passage through the waterway the critical variable for prices. Aarthi Chandrasekaran of Shuaa Capital projected oil would range between $70 and $80 per barrel, noting global markets have grown increasingly immune to regional geopolitical tensions. That forecast places $80 at the top of the expected band rather than a central estimate, and traders are bracing for a summer of Hormuz volatility that could swing prices in either direction. Barring a renewed supply disruption or a fresh escalation, the setup suggests WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July would require a sharp reversal of the prevailing bearish trend. [CNBC, Jun 29]

Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 18c YES.