Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES). | WTI Crude •2 days | 76.54 | +0.69 | +0.91% |.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit $80 in June currently shows a 26% probability of that outcome, reflecting a sharp shift in sentiment following a major geopolitical development. On Tuesday, June 16, 2026, Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecasts after President Donald Trump reached an interim deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which the bank said would bring forward the recovery of Persian Gulf crude trade by a month. The Wall Street bank now sees Brent crude averaging $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, down from a prior forecast of $90. That same day, Brent crude fell 3.2% to $80 per barrel for the first time since early March, while WTI crude dropped to $78.90, according to market data. The probability that WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit $80 in June has since fallen to 26%, as traders price in a faster-than-expected supply recovery. [CNBC, Jun 16]

The implications of the U.S.-Iran breakthrough extend beyond immediate price action, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore global oil flows that had been disrupted by weeks of heightened tensions. By Sunday, June 21, 2026, WTI crude was trading at $76.54, down from levels above $80 seen earlier in the month, while Brent crude stood at $80.57. The deal has also sparked a surge in pipeline infrastructure investment across the Middle East, according to an analysis published by OilPrice.com, as producers seek to diversify export routes and reduce future reliance on the chokepoint. Multiple banks, including Goldman Sachs, have slashed their price forecasts, with the consensus now pointing to lower average prices through the second half of the year. The market's current 74% probability that WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will not hit $80 in June reflects this bearish reassessment, as the supply-side shock from the Hormuz reopening overwhelms any lingering demand concerns. [Oilprice, Jun 21]

Looking ahead, traders are closely watching the ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and the pace at which tanker traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, June 22, 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported that oil futures extended their losses as the market took an optimistic view of the peace negotiations, with WTI for July delivery falling 1.9% ahead of contract expiration. The key question for the remainder of June is whether any supply disruptions, such as renewed tensions or logistical bottlenecks, could reverse the current downward trend and push WTI back toward the $80 threshold. With Brent already trading near that level and WTI below it, the probability that WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit $80 in June remains low, but the outcome hinges on the speed and stability of the supply recovery. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have noted that their revised forecasts assume a smooth reopening, but any delays could quickly alter the market's trajectory. [WSJ, Jun 22]

Traded on Polymarket — $82K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($82K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 15c YES.