NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers

Prediction markets put the probability at 86%: NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers. Currently, markets see this as likely (86% YES). 76ers-Knicks, Round 2: Series keys, schedule and prediction for heavyweight fight.

What’s Happening

The New York Knicks, holding the No. 3 seed with a 53-29 regular-season record, are heavily favored to win their Eastern Conference second-round series against the seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers (45-37), according to current market data showing an 86% probability for the Knicks. The series opened Monday, May 4, 2026, at Madison Square Garden, with the Knicks entering as 7.5-point home favorites. New York advanced after dispatching the Atlanta Hawks in six games, including a 51-point blowout in the clincher. Philadelphia, meanwhile, rallied from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Boston Celtics in seven games, with Joel Embiid averaging 32 points and 10.5 rebounds in that first-round series. The Knicks’ depth and physicality are seen as key advantages, though Embiid remains the most dominant individual force in the East when healthy. [Yahoo Sports, May 04]

This matchup is a rematch of their 2024 first-round series, which the Knicks won in six games, a series that featured Jalen Brunson’s career playoff high of 47 points while breaking free from Philadelphia’s smothering defense. The current series presents a critical test for New York’s defensive scheme, as the 76ers boast a three-headed perimeter attack of Tyrese Maxey, rookie VJ Edgecombe, and veteran Paul George, who are expected to hunt Brunson on switches. The Knicks’ record of 53-29 was the third-best in the Eastern Conference, while Philadelphia’s 45-37 mark placed them seventh, forcing them through the play-in tournament. Historical precedent favors the higher seed: since the NBA expanded to a seven-game first round in 2003, No. 3 seeds have won approximately 68% of second-round series against No. 7 seeds. [CBS Sports, May 04]

Looking ahead, the series schedule features Game 1 on Monday, with the Knicks’ home-court advantage at Madison Square Garden expected to play a significant role. The over/under for Game 1 is set at 213.5 total points, reflecting expectations of a physical, defensive battle. Key factors include how New York’s frontcourt—led by Mitchell Robinson and Julius Randle—handles Embiid in the post, and whether Philadelphia’s perimeter defenders can contain Brunson, who averaged 28.7 points in the first round. The winner of this series will face either the Cleveland Cavaliers or Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks’ depth and home-court edge are widely cited as decisive, though analysts remain split, with some predicting a seven-game series. [Action Network, May 04]

Traded on Polymarket — $57K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($57K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 86c YES.