Prediction markets put the probability at 55%: NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens. Currently, markets are divided (55% YES, 45% NO). 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Canadiens vs.
The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens are set to face off in the Eastern Conference Second Round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, with the series beginning Wednesday, May 6 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. The Sabres advanced by defeating the Boston Bruins 4-1 in the first round, marking their first playoff series win since the 2006-07 season. Montreal reached the second round by eliminating the Tampa Bay Lightning with a 2-1 win in Game 7 on Sunday. The regular-season series between these Atlantic Division rivals was a dead heat, with each team winning two games and scoring exactly 13 goals apiece. This matchup is the eighth all-time playoff series between the franchises, with Montreal holding a 4-3 edge in series wins. [NHL.com, Mon May 04]
The Sabres enter the series with significant momentum, having won four of five games against the Bruins behind a balanced attack. Forward Dylan Cozens led Buffalo with seven points (three goals, four assists) in the first round, while rookie Noah Ostlund contributed four points. The Canadiens, meanwhile, relied on goaltender Sam Montembeault, who posted a .935 save percentage in the first round against Tampa Bay. Both teams split their regular-season meetings, but the Sabres have shown improved defensive structure under coach Lindy Ruff, allowing just 2.2 goals per game in the playoffs. Montreal’s power play operated at 18.5% during the regular season, while Buffalo’s penalty kill ranked 12th in the league at 81.2%. [NHL.com, Mon May 04]
The series represents a critical test for both franchises. Buffalo has not advanced past the second round since 2006-07, while Montreal is seeking its first conference finals appearance since 2021. The Sabres hold home-ice advantage after finishing with a 47-25-10 record (104 points) in the regular season, compared to Montreal’s 44-28-10 mark (98 points). Key matchups include Buffalo’s top line of Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Jeff Skinner against Montreal’s shutdown pair of Mike Matheson and Kaiden Guhle. The winner will face either the Florida Panthers or Toronto Maple Leafs in the Eastern Conference Finals. [NHL.com, Mon May 04]
Polymarket prices this at 55c YES with $123K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
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