Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 23%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (23% YES). Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal until end of the year, traders say.

What’s Happening

The question of whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 has been shaped by a year of intermittent conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. After an April 2026 ceasefire briefly calmed the waterway, tensions reignited when Iran and Israel launched fresh strikes against one another on Sunday, June 7 — the first exchange since the truce. That escalation sharply cut expectations for a swift reopening: odds that traffic would normalize before August fell from 66% to 21% within two weeks, while the probability that flows would not recover before January 2027 climbed to 66% on Kalshi. [CNBC, Jun 08]

Diplomatic efforts have repeatedly promised faster resolution than shipping realities allowed. An unofficial draft of a U.S.-Iran interim peace deal, reported by Iranian state broadcaster IRIB in late May, stated that maritime traffic could return to normal within a month of any finalized agreement, with Iran and Oman jointly overseeing shipping. In mid-June, President Trump said the strait was "already partially opened" and that "ships are starting to move," with the waterway scheduled to be demined and fully reopened by that Friday. Shipping officials were more cautious, projecting a return to prewar volumes at 50% at best. [Yahoo Finance, Jun 16]

By summer, momentum toward whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 had stalled. On July 20, Iran reaffirmed its sovereignty over the strait amid continued U.S. tensions, and market pricing for a normalization by August 31 sat at just 15.5%, down from 18% a week earlier. Key uncertainties remain: Iran has not signaled when it will fully open the corridor, and the U.S. has not indicated when it might lift its naval blockade. With the strait carrying roughly a fifth of global oil flows, the timing of any de-escalation and demining will determine whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 or slips into 2027. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 20]

Traded on Polymarket — $56K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($56K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 23c YES.