Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?” at 10% YES with $638K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). Odds of when traffic will return to normal have tumbled sharply over the last few days.

What’s Happening

Traders on the Kalshi exchange currently price an **18%** probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30, a sharp decline from earlier optimism. As recently as **July 4**, the market assigned more than **50%** odds that flows would normalize by **October 1**, but that figure collapsed amid renewed geopolitical friction. The contract defines normal traffic as a **7-day moving average of at least 60 transits** per day, based on data from IMF PortWatch; current transits remain in single digits, according to the exchange’s resolution criteria. [CNBC, Jul 08]

The disruption traces back to **February 28**, when the strait’s closure began following U.S. and Israeli military action, and the timeline for recovery has repeatedly slipped. A **Dallas Fed Energy Survey** published in **April** found that only **20%** of oil and gas executives expected Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by **May 2026**, with **39%** targeting **August** and **26%** expecting **November** — a distribution that now looks optimistic against current market pricing. Historical precedent from the Red Sea crisis reinforces the slow-recovery pattern: after the last Houthi attack in **September 2025** and a ceasefire on **November 11**, Suez Canal traffic remained **60% below pre-crisis levels** even **100 days** later. [Dallas Fed, Apr 23] [The Conversation, Jun 18]

Looking ahead, the market’s implied probability for normalization by **December 1** stands near **24%**, while the **November 1** deadline carries just **16%** odds, per recent trades. A key inflection point came after **Iran-Oman talks** in late **August**, which briefly lifted sentiment but failed to produce a sustained recovery in transit counts. Polymarket traders are comparatively more optimistic, pricing a **59%** chance of normalization by **December 31**, though both platforms rely on the same IMF PortWatch data for resolution. The practical stakes are high: the strait handles roughly **20%** of global oil consumption, and shipping firms have already rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, a detour that adds weeks to transit times and keeps freight rates elevated. [Oddsshopper, Aug 27] [CNBC, Jul 08]

Traded on Polymarket — $638K Volume