Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES).
Negotiations toward a comprehensive US-Iran final nuclear deal remain stalled as of late May 2026, with President Donald Trump having submitted a revised framework that tightens terms previously presented to Tehran. According to The New York Times, the changes were sent back for Iranian consideration after the original draft failed to secure White House approval, though specifics of the new conditions have not been publicly disclosed. The development follows a series of indirect talks in Oman and Geneva during February 2026, which were complicated by Iran's temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. deployment of its largest assembled fleet of warplanes and aircraft in the region. [Al Jazeera, May 31]
The current draft memorandum of understanding, published in full by NPR on June 18, reveals a critical sticking point: it contains no Iranian commitment to hand over highly enriched uranium (HEU) or halt enrichment activities. Instead, the draft states that nuclear issues would be discussed during a 60-day period after signing, while Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted they will not suspend enrichment or transfer HEU from Iranian soil. The Institute for the Study of War noted on May 31 that the draft MoU only commits Iran to "not pursue a nuclear weapon" without addressing existing stockpiles, a gap that analysts say undermines the verifiability of any eventual US-Iran final nuclear deal. This structural ambiguity, combined with Trump's request for several additional changes, suggests the path to a signed agreement by December 31, 2026 remains narrow. [NPR, Jun 18]
The broader context is defined by the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025, which left Tehran in a weakened state after years of sanctions and domestic protests. Britannica's timeline notes that renegotiation attempts in 2025 and 2026 were unsuccessful, even as Iran's military posture deteriorated. The next scheduled round of talks has not been confirmed following Trump's latest revisions, and the 60-day nuclear discussion window in the draft MoU would push substantive negotiations into late 2026 or beyond. Whether a US-Iran final nuclear deal materializes by the end of the year hinges on whether both sides can bridge the enrichment and HEU transfer gap — the same issue that doomed the JCPOA's successor attempts — and whether Tehran accepts the toughened terms now on the table. [Britannica, Mar 06]
Active market on Polymarket with $1.3M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 22c YES.
Smart money entered NO at 63c–70c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.
We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $64K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 63c–70c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $55.7K | +10% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $5.2K | +13% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $2.6K | -36% |
YES wallets entered between 35c, NO wallets at 63c–70c. At current price 22c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 22c with $1.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 22c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 22c | $1.3M |
| Our Model | 22c | — |