As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?” at 12% YES with $2.4M traded. 3 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Iran's 60-day negotiation window expired August 17 without a breakthrough, and Trump rejected the terms — a final deal by December 31 looks unlikely.
Hostilities between Washington and Tehran reignited in early September after a 60-day negotiating window expired on August 17, 2026 without a breakthrough on a us-iran final nuclear deal. President Donald Trump rejected an extension, declared he was "in no rush," and reiterated that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remained his central demand, stating flatly that Iran "cannot have a nuclear weapon." Iran's chief negotiator responded that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington lifted its blockade and oil sanctions, even as the administration insisted shipping lanes were open. The collapse of the truce marked a sharp reversal from June, when a signing had appeared imminent. [Modernghana, Sep 02]
The two sides remain divided over timeline and intent. Trump and administration hawks frame maximum pressure as leverage to force ratification, while some Iranian voices signal a strategy of delay. Conservative analyst Majid Shakeri claimed Tehran would "wait out" Trump's term until 2029, though official channels indicated negotiations had not fully ceased, with chief negotiator Abbas Araqchi continuing to comment on the process. By August 10, traders assigned just a 1% probability to any final nuclear deal being signed by August 31, reflecting a prolonged diplomatic stalemate. Mediators had shuttled a draft memorandum of understanding between the capitals across multiple rounds without securing Tehran's assent. [Scanx, Aug 10]
The structural obstacle to a us-iran final nuclear deal is the unresolved fight over enriched uranium and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In June, Trump edited the draft agreement repeatedly — a third round of changes — while Iran's Fars news agency said the text was "still in the final stages of ratification in Iran and has not yet been decided." On June 11, Trump said a peace deal could be signed "as soon as this weekend," but Tehran countered it had "not reached a final conclusion." Whether a us-iran final nuclear deal materializes by December 31, 2026 now hinges on Iran's internal ratification and enrichment concessions, neither of which has advanced since the August deadline lapsed. [Straits Times, Jun 12]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 12c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 72c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 75c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 80% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 85% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (72–98c vs 88c). Claude Analysis leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 88c. 1-point gap supports YES.
Smart money is uniformly positioned on NO, with entries clustered between 63c and 86c, indicating conviction that a final deal will not occur by the deadline. The absence of any YES entries among tracked wallets suggests informed traders see limited upside in the YES scenario. This positioning signals continued downward pressure on YES, as any rally toward 20c+ would likely be met by profit-taking from NO holders.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $390.0K | +2% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 | MM | NO | $27.1K | +6% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $6.2K | +23% |
All tracked wallets are in profit on NO positions, with entry prices ranging from 63c to 86c, while no YES positions are profitable. This creates strong resistance to upward price movement, as NO holders have significant unrealized gains and little incentive to sell at current levels. The 12c YES price reflects a market heavily skewed toward NO, with support likely to remain weak until a major catalyst shifts sentiment.
Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $2.4M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $2.4M |
| Our Model | 13c | — |