As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?” at 12% YES with $2.9M traded. 3 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Iran's 60-day negotiation window expired August 17 without a breakthrough, and Trump rejected the terms — a final deal by December 31 looks unlikely.
Hostilities between Washington and Tehran reignited in early September after a 60-day negotiating window expired on August 17, 2026 without a breakthrough on a us-iran final nuclear deal. President Donald Trump rejected an extension, declared he was "in no rush," and reiterated that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remained his central demand, stating flatly that Iran "cannot have a nuclear weapon." Iran's chief negotiator responded that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington lifted its blockade and oil sanctions, even as the administration insisted shipping lanes were open. The collapse of the truce marked a sharp reversal from June, when a signing had appeared imminent. [Modernghana, Sep 02]
The two sides remain divided over timeline and intent. Trump and administration hawks frame maximum pressure as leverage to force ratification, while some Iranian voices signal a strategy of delay. Conservative analyst Majid Shakeri claimed Tehran would "wait out" Trump's term until 2029, though official channels indicated negotiations had not fully ceased, with chief negotiator Abbas Araqchi continuing to comment on the process. By August 10, traders assigned just a 1% probability to any final nuclear deal being signed by August 31, reflecting a prolonged diplomatic stalemate. Mediators had shuttled a draft memorandum of understanding between the capitals across multiple rounds without securing Tehran's assent. [Scanx, Aug 10]
The structural obstacle to a us-iran final nuclear deal is the unresolved fight over enriched uranium and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In June, Trump edited the draft agreement repeatedly — a third round of changes — while Iran's Fars news agency said the text was "still in the final stages of ratification in Iran and has not yet been decided." On June 11, Trump said a peace deal could be signed "as soon as this weekend," but Tehran countered it had "not reached a final conclusion." Whether a us-iran final nuclear deal materializes by December 31, 2026 now hinges on Iran's internal ratification and enrichment concessions, neither of which has advanced since the August deadline lapsed. [Straits Times, Jun 12]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 14c vs market 12c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 72c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 91c | 82% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 86c | 88% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (72–97c vs 88c). Gemini Flash leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 88c. 2-point gap supports YES.
Three tracked wallets are exclusively on the NO side, with entries ranging from 63c to 86c, indicating conviction that no final nuclear deal will be reached. Their profitable positioning and lack of YES entries suggest smart money sees little chance of a breakthrough, reinforcing the bearish YES outlook. This concentrated NO exposure implies these wallets expect the status quo or further deterioration in US-Iran negotiations.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $390.0K | +2% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 | MM | NO | $27.1K | +6% | |
| 0x0845..6f | Retail | NO | $6.2K | +23% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit with entries at 63c-86c against a current YES price of 12c, implying NO trades near 88c. The absence of any profitable YES holders and 0% YES in profit signals strong downside pressure on YES, with NO holders well-positioned to defend the 12c level. This asymmetry suggests the market is pricing a very low probability of a deal by December 31, 2026.
Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $2.9M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $2.9M |
| Our Model | 14c | — |