Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO). Ships shun Strait of Hormuz as renewed fighting strains key oil corridor.

What’s Happening

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed amid renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, with shipping data showing that only three commodity vessels crossed the strategic waterway on Thursday, July 16, the fewest daily transits since May. The sharp decline follows the implementation of a U.S. blockade on Iran-related shipping ordered by President Donald Trump and a series of Iranian attacks on commercial vessels. Kpler data indicated that most ships halted or made U-turns in the days prior, with the sanctioned fuel oil tanker Miraan among the few vessels still navigating the corridor. The re-escalation has effectively choked one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply transits daily. [Marine News Magazine, Jul 17]

By Tuesday, July 21, the situation had worsened, with vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz falling further as security concerns persisted amid ongoing U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure. CNBC reported that shipowners were increasingly avoiding the waterway entirely, with multiple shipping datasets confirming a sustained slump in transits. The U.S. conducted its 11th consecutive night of airstrikes against Iran into Wednesday, July 22, while Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis escalated threats to commercial shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, compounding risks for global maritime trade. The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between July 20 and July 26 is now in question, with current data suggesting that fewer than 50 ships may cross during that period. [CNBC, Jul 21]

The sustained disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global energy prices and raised concerns about supply chain stability for oil and liquefied natural gas. Analysts note that the blockade and reciprocal attacks have created a security environment where commercial insurers are reluctant to underwrite voyages through the waterway, and many vessels are rerouting around the Arabian Peninsula. The question of whether fewer than 50 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20 and July 26 hinges on whether diplomatic channels reopen or military operations de-escalate in the coming days. As of Wednesday, July 22, no signs of a ceasefire had emerged, with both the U.S. and Iran continuing strikes. [Marine News Magazine, Jul 22]

Traded on Polymarket — $52K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($52K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 36c YES.