Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES). How Latest NHL Mock Drafts Contrast for Leafs, Sharks, Rangers and Lottery Teams.

What’s Happening

Gavin McKenna enters the final stretch before the 2026 NHL Draft as the consensus projected first overall selection, with the Toronto Maple Leafs holding the No. 1 pick after winning this year's draft lottery. The draft is scheduled to open in Buffalo on June 26, with more than 200 players eligible and a deep prospect pool headlining the offseason for lottery teams including the San Jose Sharks and New York Rangers. Daily Faceoff's May Top 100 rankings reaffirmed McKenna's position atop the board, a placement he has held across every major public mock draft heading into combine week. [Bleacher Report, Jun 02]

McKenna confirmed interviews with at least eight NHL clubs at the 2026 NHL Scouting Combine, which runs June 1-6 at KeyBank Center and LECOM HarborCenter in Buffalo. He is one of 90 prospects invited by NHL Central Scouting, with vice president Dan Marr describing the combine as "a rite of passage" featuring physical testing, medical assessments and team interviews. The breadth of meetings — extending well beyond the Maple Leafs — reflects standard combine protocol rather than uncertainty over the top pick, as clubs lower in the order routinely interview projected franchise centers to refine board ranking for later rounds. The question of whether Gavin McKenna will be drafted 1st overall in the NHL Draft hinges primarily on Toronto's evaluation. [NHL.com, Jun 01]

Historically, projected No. 1 picks who enter combine week atop every public ranking — Connor Bedard in 2023, Macklin Celebrini in 2024 — have converted at the draft itself, with the consensus top prospect rarely sliding once medicals clear. Remaining variables before June 26 include final combine testing results, Memorial Cup performance from competing prospects, and any late medical disclosure. Whether Gavin McKenna is drafted 1st overall in the NHL Draft will be confirmed on the opening night of the draft in Buffalo, with the Maple Leafs on the clock first. The 2026 Stanley Cup Final between the Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes begins Tuesday, with the draft following the conclusion of the postseason. [Daily Faceoff, May 27]

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 88c YES.