As of October 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?” at 54% YES with $50K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 54% probability to: will no next israeli minister of finance be appointed by february 28, 2027?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. BUY YES at 54c — models see 15c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 77c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 62c | 35% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 68c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 70c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 65c | 55% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (62–77c vs 54c). Gemini Flash leads with 65% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 69c — market prices it at 54c. 15-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 36c, well below the current 54c, indicating early conviction that no next Israeli Minister of Finance will be appointed by February 28, 2027. With only one wallet tracked, the sample is thin and should be treated as a directional signal rather than broad smart-money consensus. The entry suggests informed positioning toward the YES outcome, but the limited wallet count warrants caution in extrapolating.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | YES | $5.4K | +43% |
All YES positions are in profit, with entries at 36c against the current 54c price, a gain of roughly 18c per share. No NO holders are profitable, meaning the market has moved decisively against the NO side and there is no losing YES cohort to create sell pressure. This one-sided profitability supports the YES price, as holders have little incentive to exit at a loss and the absence of profitable NO positions removes a natural source of downward pressure.
Polymarket prices YES at 54c with $50K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 69c. Significant 15-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 54c | $50K |
| Our Model | 69c | — |