As of November 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?” at 50% YES with $51K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 50% probability to: will no next israeli minister of national security be appointed by february 28, 2027?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. BUY YES at 50c — models see 19c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 62c | 38% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 68c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 70c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 65c | 55% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (62–75c vs 50c). Gemini Flash leads with 65% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 69c — market prices it at 50c. 19-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is exclusively long YES, entered at 36c, and is now sitting on a 39% gain. With no offsetting NO exposure, this is a clean directional bet that the seat remains unfilled through February 2027, and the early entry suggests conviction ahead of the current 50c consensus. The positioning signals that informed money sees the no-appointment outcome as underpriced relative to the market's coin-flip pricing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | YES | $4.4K | +35% |
Every YES position is in profit, with entries clustered at 36c against a current 50c mark, yielding roughly 14c of unrealized gain per share. The absence of any NO entries means there is no losing cohort to create sell pressure or cap upside. This one-sided profitability supports the 50c level, as holders have little incentive to exit and the lack of NO conviction leaves the downside thinly defended.
Polymarket prices YES at 50c with $51K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 69c. Significant 19-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 50c | $51K |
| Our Model | 69c | — |