Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). Measles cases in 2026 are set to surpass last year's total.

What’s Happening

As of July 22, 2026, the United States has reported 2,295 confirmed measles cases, surpassing the total of 2,289 cases recorded in all of 2025 and marking the highest annual count in 35 years, according to data from Johns Hopkins University’s U.S. measles tracker. This surge, driven largely by large outbreaks earlier in the year in states such as South Carolina and Utah, has prompted public health specialists to warn that the U.S. may be on track to lose its measles elimination status, which was first achieved in 2000. The current trajectory raises the question of whether there will be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026, a threshold that would represent a more than fivefold increase from the current count and would be unprecedented in the modern era. [WaPo, Jul 21]

The pace of transmission shows no signs of slowing, with more than five months remaining in the year. In California, cases have doubled compared to 2025, reaching 52 confirmed infections in the first 6½ months of 2026, a figure that, if sustained, could surpass the state’s high from 2015 when 125 cases were linked to a Disneyland outbreak. Nationally, the 2,295 cases already exceed the 2025 total, which was itself the highest in over 30 years. Epidemiologists attribute the rise to declining vaccination rates and the resurgence of the highly contagious virus in under-vaccinated communities. The accelerating spread makes it increasingly plausible that there will be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026, though reaching that figure would require a dramatic escalation in transmission over the coming months. [Los Angeles Times, Jul 23]

Public health officials are closely monitoring whether the U.S. will lose its measles elimination status, a designation that requires sustained interruption of endemic transmission. The current outbreak, described by experts as the worst in 35 years, has already triggered renewed calls for vaccination campaigns and public health interventions. With the year only half over, the key variable is whether containment efforts can slow the spread before the typical winter respiratory season amplifies transmission. The possibility that there will be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 remains a low-probability scenario given the current count of 2,295, but the record-breaking trajectory and remaining months of potential exposure mean the outcome is far from certain. [ABC News, Jul 17]

Traded on Polymarket — $349K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 5c YES with $349K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.