Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). WTI crude oil prices in July 2026.

What’s Happening

As of July 21, 2026, the probability of WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hitting a low of $75 in July stands at just 6%, reflecting market confidence that prices will remain elevated despite recent volatility. This low probability persists even as WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $75 in July remains a theoretical possibility amid supply disruptions. The current WTI price hovers near $85.23 per barrel, bolstered by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz following Iran’s retaliatory attacks on July 20. The strait’s shutdown, a direct result of escalating US-Iran hostilities, has removed approximately 20% of global oil supply from transit, creating a structural floor under prices that makes a drop to $75 unlikely in the near term. [OilPrice.com, Tue Jul 21]

The market’s skepticism about a $75 low is reinforced by simultaneous bullish factors, including Chevron’s precautionary halt of operations at its Petronius facility in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Bertha approaches. While only one platform has been shut down, the move signals potential further supply curtailments if the storm intensifies, adding upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories have built modestly, but the ongoing shipping headache through the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain global flows. These dynamics collectively suggest that WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $75 in July would require a dramatic and unforeseen de-escalation in the Middle East or a sudden demand collapse, neither of which appears imminent. [Crypto Briefing, Tue Jul 21]

Looking ahead, the key variable remains the Iran conflict. On July 21, oil prices briefly reversed gains on renewed hopes for peace negotiations, with WTI dipping to $81.74 before recovering. However, analysts note that even a ceasefire would take weeks to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping supply tight. The probability of WTI reaching $90 by end of July has risen to 46%, further underscoring the market’s upward bias. For WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $75 in July to materialize, traders would need to see a rapid resolution to the Hormuz crisis combined with a significant inventory build—a scenario that current data and geopolitical realities make highly improbable. [Reuters, Mon Jul 20]

Traded on Polymarket — $77K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($77K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.