Week 30, 2026: graded AI verdicts

5 of the 35 tracked markets that resolved in week 30 (2026-07-20 – 2026-07-26) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 1 of 3; 2 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 161 of 242 BUY verdicts hit (67%), ROI -4.9% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

1 / 3

BUY verdicts hit the outcome (33%) · 2 HOLD, no entry

+96.1%

ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (3 calls, +$2,882 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-07-20 – 2026-07-26

Market

Outcome

AI verdict

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?2026-07-20

YES

NO ×BUY NO @ 77¢ · −$1,000

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?2026-07-20

YES ×BUY YES @ 45¢ · −$1,000

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-07-20

HOLD · no entry

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-07-20

YES

YES ✓BUY YES @ 17¢ · +$4,882

World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?2026-07-20

HOLD · no entry

30 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

161 / 242

BUY verdicts hit the outcome (67%) · 148 HOLD, no entry

-4.9%

ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (242 calls, −$11,874 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

Category	BUY verdicts hit
Other	58 / 80
Geopolitics	46 / 67
Politics	31 / 42
Sports	22 / 37
Economics	3 / 8
Crypto	1 / 7
Science	0 / 1

Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 548 resolved markets without a verdict, 2 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 148 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W30.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.