Week 32, 2026: graded AI verdicts

5 of the 29 tracked markets that resolved in week 32 (2026-08-03 – 2026-08-09) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 3 of 3; 2 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 175 of 257 BUY verdicts hit (68%), ROI -3.3% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

3 / 3

BUY verdicts hit the outcome (100%) · 2 HOLD, no entry

+52.5%

ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (3 calls, +$1,576 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-08-03 – 2026-08-09

Market

Outcome

AI verdict

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?2026-08-05

YES

HOLD · no entry

Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?2026-08-05

NO ✓BUY NO @ 63¢ · +$587

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?2026-08-05

NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?2026-08-04

NO ✓BUY NO @ 54¢ · +$852

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?2026-08-03

YES

HOLD · no entry

24 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

175 / 257

BUY verdicts hit the outcome (68%) · 157 HOLD, no entry

-3.3%

ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (257 calls, −$8,356 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

Category	BUY verdicts hit
Other	62 / 85
Geopolitics	50 / 71
Politics	34 / 45
Sports	22 / 37
Economics	6 / 11
Crypto	1 / 7
Science	0 / 1

Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 598 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 157 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W32.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.