Week 33, 2026: graded AI verdicts
4 of the 52 tracked markets that resolved in week 33 (2026-08-10 – 2026-08-16) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 3 of 4. Cumulative record: 178 of 261 BUY verdicts hit (68%), ROI -3.1% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.
3 / 4
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (75%)
+8.2%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (4 calls, +$328 total)
Verdicts resolved 2026-08-10 – 2026-08-16
Market
Outcome
AI verdict
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 22¢ · −$1,000
48 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.
Cumulative record
178 / 261
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (68%) · 157 HOLD, no entry
-3.1%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (261 calls, −$8,028 total)
108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.
| Category | BUY verdicts hit |
|---|---|
| Other | 62 / 85 |
| Geopolitics | 52 / 73 |
| Politics | 35 / 47 |
| Sports | 22 / 37 |
| Economics | 6 / 11 |
| Crypto | 1 / 7 |
| Science | 0 / 1 |
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 646 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 157 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W33.json.
Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.