NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars

Prediction markets put the probability at 74%: NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars. Currently, markets see this as likely (74% YES). Dallas Stars @ Minnesota Wild.

What’s Happening

The Minnesota Wild hold a 3-2 series lead over the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference First Round of the NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars, with Game 6 set for Thursday, April 30, 2026, in St. Paul. The Wild, who finished the regular season with a 46-24-12 record (104 points), have won three consecutive games after dropping the first two contests of the series. Their Game 5 victory in Dallas on April 28 was fueled by a dominant defensive performance that limited the Stars to just one goal, pushing Minnesota to the brink of their first series win since 2015. The Stars, who posted a 50-20-12 mark (112 points) to win the Central Division, now face elimination after failing to capitalize on home ice in Games 3 and 4. [ESPN, Apr 30] [ESPN, Apr 29]

The Wild’s recent surge has been defined by a balanced attack and timely goaltending, with veteran forward Mats Zuccarello returning from injury to provide a spark in Game 5. Minnesota’s penalty kill has been a key factor, holding the Stars’ power play—which entered the series ranked among the league’s best—to just 2-for-12 over the last three games. The Stars, meanwhile, have struggled to generate consistent offense outside of their top line, with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz combining for only one point in the past two contests. Dallas’s Game 4 overtime loss on April 25 was particularly damaging, as they squandered a late lead and now must win two straight to avoid a second consecutive first-round exit. The series marks the third playoff meeting between these Central Division rivals, with the Stars winning in six games in both 2016 and 2023. [NHL.com, Apr 29] [CBS Sports, Apr 29]

Looking ahead, the Wild have a chance to close out the series at home for the first time since 2015, when they defeated the St. Louis Blues in six games. Minnesota’s record at Xcel Energy Center this season was 25-12-4, while the Stars posted a 22-14-5 mark on the road. The betting line for Game 6 lists the Wild as -124 favorites, with the over/under set at 5.5 goals. If the Stars force a Game 7, it would be played in Dallas on May 2. The winner of this series will face either the Edmonton Oilers or the Anaheim Ducks in the second round. Historical precedent favors the Wild: teams holding a 3-2 lead in a best-of-seven series win the series approximately 78% of

Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 74c YES.