Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?

Prediction markets put the probability at 70%: Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final. Currently, markets see this as likely (70% YES). Ødegaard: Title-chasing Arsenal in 'amazing position'.

What’s Happening

Arsenal’s bid to reach the UEFA Champions League final remains firmly on track after a gritty 1-1 draw away to Atletico Madrid in the first leg of their semi-final on April 29, 2026. The result, secured by a Viktor Gyokeres goal, leaves the Gunners needing only a narrow win at the Emirates in the return leg to advance to their first Champions League final since 2005. Currently sitting atop the Premier League table, Arsenal hold a six-point lead over Manchester City with five matches remaining, giving them a clear path to a first league title in 22 years. Captain Martin Ødegaard has urged his teammates to shed their “nearly-men” tag and embrace the opportunity to make history, especially after being eliminated at this same stage by Paris Saint-Germain last season. [ESPN, Apr 28]

The Gunners’ form in the knockout stages has been statistically dominant, with an expected goals (xG) advantage in every match so far, including the Atletico first leg where they created 2.1 xG to the hosts’ 0.8. A new UEFA rule, which prioritizes league-phase seeding for home advantage in the knockout rounds, has worked in Arsenal’s favor this season after they finished third in the league phase. This rule change, implemented to reward consistent group-stage performance, means Arsenal will host the second leg at the Emirates, where they have lost just once in all competitions this campaign. The club’s women’s team is also chasing history, having taken a first-leg lead in their Women’s Champions League semifinal against Lyon, creating the possibility of both Arsenal sides reaching European finals in the same season for the first time. [ESPN, Apr 27]

Looking ahead, Arsenal’s path to the final hinges on the second leg at the Emirates on May 6, 2026, where a 1-0 win or any victory by a single goal would suffice. The Gunners have won four of their last five home matches in the Champions League, including a 3-1 victory over Real Madrid in the quarterfinals. However, they must navigate a grueling Premier League schedule with matches against Fulham and Manchester United before the return leg. Historically, Arsenal have reached the Champions League final only once, losing to Barcelona in 2006, and have been eliminated in the semifinals in 2009 and 2025. The current probability of Arsenal reaching the final stands at 70%, reflecting both their strong form and the advantage of playing the decisive match at home. [CBS Sports, Apr 29]

Traded on Polymarket — $106K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 70c YES with $106K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.