AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 60c |
20%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 38c |
24%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 40c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 49c |
50%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 40c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 21c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.1K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,054 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 22c | $95.3K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 40c | — | ✓ matched |