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Politics
Resolves: May 2026 13 days left Volume: $510K

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

NO
80c
YES
20c

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES). Trump Says Iran Wants Hormuz Open in Tussle Over War’s End.

Down from 22% to 20% since 2026-04-29 (-2pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $510K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 20c YES with $510K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
Last updated: April 29, 2026, 22:06 UTC
OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 162 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 20% YES with $510K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.