Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).

What’s Happening

The race to succeed António Guterres as United Nations Secretary-General has formally narrowed to four candidates, with Senegal's Macky Sall among those vying for the world's top diplomatic post. On April 21, 2026, the candidates—including Rafael Grossi of Argentina, Michelle Bachelet of Chile, Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, and Macky Sall of Senegal—underwent hours of informal dialogues with U.N. member states at headquarters in New York. The General Assembly president described the process as "one of the toughest job interviews in the world," with candidates grilled on restoring global peace, ending escalating poverty, and defending the U.N. Charter. Sall, the former president of Senegal, enters the contest as a relative outsider compared to the other three, who have held high-profile international roles at the IAEA, the Chilean presidency, and UNCTAD respectively. [The Jerusalem Post, Apr 27]

The selection process carries significant geopolitical weight, as the next Secretary-General will lead an organization facing crises from Ukraine to Sudan while managing a polarized Security Council. Macky Sall's candidacy for the next Secretary-General of the United Nations is notable for representing West Africa, a region that has not held the post since Kofi Annan left in 2006, though the informal tradition of regional rotation is not binding. The current probability of Sall securing the position stands at 9%, reflecting the stiff competition from Bachelet, a former Chilean president and U.N. Human Rights chief, and Grynspan, who has led the U.N. trade and development agency since 2021. Grossi, the head of the IAEA, has also gained prominence for his role in nuclear nonproliferation talks. [NBC News, Apr 26]

Looking ahead, the U.N. Security Council is expected to hold straw polls in the coming weeks to gauge support for each candidate, with a formal recommendation to the General Assembly likely by late 2026. The outcome hinges on whether any candidate can secure the backing of all five permanent Security Council members, including Russia and China, which have veto power. For Macky Sall, the path to becoming the next Secretary-General of the United Nations requires overcoming the institutional advantages of his rivals, particularly Bachelet's broad name recognition and Grynspan's decade of U.N. leadership. The General Assembly is scheduled to vote on the final nominee later this year, with the winner set to begin a five-year term in January 2027. [AP News, Apr 26]

Traded on Polymarket — $135K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 9c YES with $135K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.