Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). + What to know as the US tries to open the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire wavers.

What’s Happening

The race to succeed António Guterres as United Nations Secretary-General has introduced a new contender, with former Senegalese President Macky Sall emerging as a potential candidate. Current probability assessments place his chances at 12%, reflecting significant diplomatic and political hurdles. Sall, who left office in April 2024 after serving two terms, is viewed by some African Union member states as a stabilizing figure with experience in regional security and economic reform. However, his candidacy faces scrutiny over his tenure's handling of opposition protests and a delayed election in 2024, which drew criticism from international rights groups. The question of whether Macky Sall will be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations remains open, though the 88% probability against his selection underscores the long odds he faces in a field that traditionally rotates among regional blocs and requires consensus from the Security Council's five permanent members. [AP, May 03]

The geopolitical landscape surrounding the UN leadership selection is further complicated by escalating instability in West Africa, a region Sall would be expected to help stabilize. On May 3, 2026, armed men abducted a former minister and junta critic in Mali, his family confirmed, highlighting the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel. Just one day later, on May 4, Mali's junta leader assumed direct control of the defense ministry after the previous minister was killed in militant attacks. These events underscore the fragility of governance in a region where Sall previously mediated crises, including the 2022 ECOWAS negotiations with Mali's junta. For Sall to be a credible candidate for Secretary-General, he would need to demonstrate that his diplomatic record in addressing such conflicts translates into a viable UN agenda, particularly as the organization grapples with peacekeeping failures and rising authoritarianism in member states. [AP, May 04]

Broader global challenges are also shaping the context for the next UN chief's selection, with the organization facing simultaneous crises in nuclear nonproliferation and food security. On April 30, 2026, the head of the organization overseeing the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty warned that if the United States or Russia conducts a nuclear test, other nations will follow, signaling a potential unraveling of decades-old arms control frameworks. Meanwhile, a May 5 Newsweek opinion piece highlighted that the UN World Food Programme is struggling to coordinate delivery amid rising global hunger, with the author noting that "the preservation of life" depends on collective will. These issues will dominate the agenda for the next Secretary-General, requiring a leader capable of navigating great-power rivalries and mobilizing resources for humanitarian crises. As the selection process moves toward informal straw polls in the General Assembly later this year, the viability of Macky Sall as the next Secretary-General of the United Nations will depend on his ability to articulate a clear vision for addressing these interconnected threats. [WaPo, Apr 30]

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