Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Oct 26, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $1.9M

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Q: How did 'Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Oct 26, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · OCT 26

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (5 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	54c	8%
Compound Signal	NO	31c	38%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	75%
Grok Contrarian	NO	10c	70%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	8c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 23c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 28c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x22db..0f	Retail	YES	$2.6K	-72%
This Market Entered at 28c → now 50c (-72%), $2.6K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1570 trades · 100% win rate · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1570 trades).

See all 90 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,563 on $2.6K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	8c	$1.9M	0c
AI Consensus	23c	—	✓ matched

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