Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). It moved Vitor Pereira's side on to 39 points, eight clear of 18th-placed Tottenham and six clear of 17th-placed West Ham.

What’s Happening

Nottingham Forest’s emphatic 5-0 victory over Sunderland on Friday, April 24, 2026, has dramatically shifted the club’s survival outlook, placing them on 39 points with five matches remaining in the Premier League season. The win, powered by a first-half blitz that included a goal from Jesus, moved Vitor Pereira’s side eight points clear of 18th-placed Tottenham and six points clear of 17th-placed West Ham. Historical precedent strongly favors Forest: it has been 15 years since a team was relegated with 39 points, and the average points tally for 18th place over the past five seasons has dropped to just 29.6. This statistical cushion, combined with a dominant goal-difference swing from the Sunderland drubbing, has reduced the probability that Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after the season to just 12% in the market. [BBC, Apr 24]

The context of the relegation battle has shifted from a three-team scramble to a two-team fight between West Ham and Tottenham, with Forest now effectively safe. While Tottenham could theoretically reach 46 points by winning all five of their remaining games, their current form and Forest’s eight-point buffer make that scenario highly unlikely. Meanwhile, Forest’s recent record of three wins in their last five matches—including the shutout of Sunderland—contrasts sharply with the struggles of the teams below them. The market’s 88% NO probability reflects this reality, as the data suggests that Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after the season would require an unprecedented collapse. Even if Forest lose all remaining fixtures, their current points total would likely be enough, given that the 18th-place finisher has averaged under 30 points in recent campaigns. [FOX Sports, Apr 24]

Looking ahead, Forest’s path to mathematical safety could be secured as early as next week, depending on results involving West Ham and Tottenham. The club’s strong defensive record—ranked among the top half of the league—and the return of key players from injury provide a solid foundation for the final stretch. Additionally, the potential for a sixth-place finish and a UEFA Champions League spot via the European Performance Slot (EPS) adds an unexpected layer of motivation, as Aston Villa and other clubs compete for European places. For the market, the key question is whether any external factors—such as a points deduction or a catastrophic injury crisis—could reverse the current trajectory. As it stands, the 12% YES probability reflects the slim chance that Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after the season, a scenario that would require both a historic collapse and a perfect storm of results from the teams below them. [Premier League, Apr 25]

Traded on Polymarket — $58K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($58K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 12c YES.