Week 34, 2026: graded AI verdicts

5 of the 37 tracked markets that resolved in week 34 (2026-08-17 – 2026-08-23) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 4 of 4; 1 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 182 of 265 BUY verdicts hit (69%), ROI -2.3% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

4 / 4

BUY verdicts hit the outcome (100%) · 1 HOLD, no entry

+46.0%

ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (4 calls, +$1,842 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-08-17 – 2026-08-23

Market

Outcome

AI verdict

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?2026-08-21

NO ✓BUY NO @ 42¢ · +$1,381

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?2026-08-19

NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?2026-08-19

YES

YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?2026-08-19

HOLD · no entry

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?2026-08-19

NO ✓BUY NO @ 80¢ · +$250

32 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

182 / 265

BUY verdicts hit the outcome (69%) · 158 HOLD, no entry

-2.3%

ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (265 calls, −$6,187 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

Category	BUY verdicts hit
Other	62 / 85
Geopolitics	55 / 76
Politics	36 / 48
Sports	22 / 37
Economics	6 / 11
Crypto	1 / 7
Science	0 / 1

Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 678 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 158 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W34.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.