Best Polymarket Bets Today

AI-verified picks from 983+ prediction markets. Only markets where tier-1 wallets (80%+ historical accuracy) are positioned and potential profit exceeds 50%. Ranked by profit per day. Updated daily.

Real-time odds from Polymarket & Kalshi 5 AI models analyze every market 166 top wallets tracked on-chain

All ★ Best Bets 9 Politics 48 Geopolitics 47 Economics 9 Crypto 18 Sports 16 Science 5 Other 36

9 best bets

Geopolitics

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Markets are split on this outcome at 57% YES. 2 tracked wallets with $336K in volume.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO).

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Markets lean NO at 58%, but a 42% YES tail reflects active conflict spillover risk that keeps closure plausible through June.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026.

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Tehran's regime has weathered recent protests and sanctions without visible succession signals as Khamenei holds power. Six smart wallets sit NO at 68%, with $2.5M volume reflecting structural skepticism on a short timeline.

US recession by end of 2026?

Dimon's warnings on debt refinancing and real estate stress are real, but markets price 76% NO — labor and consumer spending haven't cracked yet.

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Machado's exile-return push and opposition momentum make a Maduro-to-Rodríguez handover unlikely by year-end, validating the 80% NO.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Counterproposal fell short of US demands and strikes continue, making a clean enrichment halt by June 30 a tall order.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Markets price an 82% chance Democrats flip at least one chamber, with internal GOP friction over the $1B White House security ask reinforcing the bearish tilt.

82%

YES

18%

How We Pick Best Bets

Every market must pass three filters: (1) at least one tier-1 wallet — traders with 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets — is positioned on one side, (2) potential profit exceeds 50% if the verdict is correct, and (3) the market has a known resolution date. Markets are then ranked by profit per day — the highest expected return in the shortest time appears first.

Verified: April 2026 · 291 resolved markets

Frequently Asked Questions

How are best bets selected?

We filter all 983+ markets to find those where tier-1 wallets (80%+ historical accuracy) are positioned, potential profit exceeds 50%, and the resolution date is known. Markets are ranked by expected profit per day.

What are tier-1 wallets?

Out of 166 tracked Polymarket wallets, 31 have predicted correctly more than 80% of the time across 291 resolved markets. We call these “tier-1” wallets. When 5+ tier-1 wallets agree on one side, the outcome has matched 95.2% of the time.

How often is this page updated?

Best bets are recalculated every time our pipeline runs (daily). New markets are added as they qualify, resolved markets are removed automatically.

Can I trade these markets directly?

Yes. Each market card links to the full analysis page with our AI verdict and entry target. From there you can go directly to Polymarket to place your trade.