Smart money positioning across 13 price brackets. 6 alpha wallets tracked. $29.7M total volume.
Where will Bitcoin finish 2026? Polymarket breaks this question into 13 separate brackets — each one a real-money market. We pulled them onto one page and overlaid alpha wallet data, so you can see where smart money stands at every price level.
6 alpha wallets are tracked across these brackets. The strongest signal: 2 wallets positioned NO at $40,000. Not every bracket has wallet activity — where you see zeros, smart money hasn't taken a position yet. That's data too.
Alpha wallets are on-chain addresses with 85%+ accuracy on resolved prediction markets. We track 87 of them. When they move — it's signal, not noise. How it works →
Each row = a price target. The bar = market probability (what all traders collectively think). The wallet count = how many alpha wallets have taken a position. YES ▲ means they think Bitcoin will reach this price by end of 2026. NO ▼ means they're betting against it — they don't think it will get there.
$85,00067%0 wallets — $90,00048%0 wallets — $95,00034%0 wallets — $100,00026%0 wallets — $110,00018%0 wallets — $120,00012%1 wallets ▼ NO $130,0006%1 wallets ▼ NODownside risk levels. YES ▲ here means wallets think Bitcoin will touch this price at some point during 2026 — even if it recovers after. NO ▼ means they don't think it will drop that low.
$60,00028%0 wallets — $55,00024%0 wallets — $50,00016%1 wallets ▼ NO $45,00010%1 wallets ▼ NO $40,0008%2 wallets ▼ NO $35,0006%0 wallets —This page updates every 6 hours as wallet positions and market prices change. Total volume across all brackets: $29.7M.
How do we track wallets? · See all 87 alpha wallets · What is an AI Verdict?