Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026

Smart money positioning across 21 price brackets. 6 alpha wallets tracked. $27.1M total volume.

One verdict per market a tracked wallet holds 3 math models + up to 5 AI models behind it 166 tracked wallets tiered daily by their record

Where will Bitcoin finish 2026? Polymarket breaks this question into 21 separate brackets — each one a real-money market. We pulled them onto one page and overlaid alpha wallet data, so you can see where smart money stands at every price level.

6 alpha wallets are tracked across these brackets. The strongest signal: 1 wallets positioned NO at $55,000. Not every bracket has wallet activity — where you see zeros, smart money hasn't taken a position yet. That's data too.

Alpha wallets are on-chain addresses with 85%+ accuracy on resolved prediction markets. We track 89 of them. When they move — it's signal, not noise. How it works →

Each row = a price target. The bar = market probability (what all traders collectively think). The wallet count = how many alpha wallets have taken a position. YES ▲ means they think Bitcoin will reach this price by end of 2026. NO ▼ means they're betting against it — they don't think it will get there.

$85,000
77%0 wallets —
$87,500
50%0 wallets —
$90,000
64%0 wallets —
$90,000
32%0 wallets —
$92,500
20%0 wallets —
$95,000
40%0 wallets —
$95,000
10%0 wallets —
$97,500
6%0 wallets —
$100,000
28%0 wallets —
$110,000
12%1 wallets ▼ NO
$120,000
6%1 wallets ▼ NO

Downside risk levels. YES ▲ here means wallets think Bitcoin will touch this price at some point during 2026 — even if it recovers after. NO ▼ means they don't think it will drop that low.

$80,000
62%0 wallets —
$77,500
37%0 wallets —
$75,000
22%0 wallets —
$72,500
14%0 wallets —
$70,000
36%1 wallets ▲ YES
$70,000
8%0 wallets —
$65,000
20%0 wallets —
$60,000
14%1 wallets ▲ YES
$55,000
8%1 wallets ▼ NO
$50,000
6%1 wallets ▼ NO

This page updates every 6 hours as wallet positions and market prices change. Total volume across all brackets: $27.1M.

How do we track wallets? · See all 89 tracked wallets · What is an AI Verdict?

Browse by category

Politics
42 with a verdict · 140 tracked
US elections, impeachment odds, global leaders
Sports
1 with a verdict · 61 tracked
NBA Finals, World Cup 2026, Champions League, F1
Geopolitics
47 with a verdict · 135 tracked
Regime change, ceasefire timelines, sanctions
Crypto
11 with a verdict · 116 tracked
Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, DeFi events
Economics
20 with a verdict · 64 tracked
Fed rate decisions, inflation, recession odds
Other
34 with a verdict · 1609 tracked
Tech acquisitions, product launches, cultural events

Also tracked — no verdict yet (602)

Markets where none of the tracked wallets holds a position: live price, volume and news, no call.