Smart money positioning across 14 price brackets. 3 alpha wallets tracked. $16.8M total volume.
Where will Bitcoin finish 2026? Polymarket breaks this question into 14 separate brackets — each one a real-money market. We pulled them onto one page and overlaid alpha wallet data, so you can see where smart money stands at every price level.
3 alpha wallets are tracked across these brackets. The strongest signal: 1 wallets positioned NO at $15,000. Not every bracket has wallet activity — where you see zeros, smart money hasn't taken a position yet. That's data too.
Alpha wallets are on-chain addresses with 85%+ accuracy on resolved prediction markets. We track 162 of them. When they move — it's signal, not noise. How it works →
Each row = a price target. The bar = market probability (what all traders collectively think). The wallet count = how many alpha wallets have taken a position. YES ▲ means they think Bitcoin will reach this price by end of 2026. NO ▼ means they're betting against it — they don't think it will get there.
$100,00034%0 wallets — $110,00020%0 wallets — $120,00016%0 wallets — $130,00012%0 wallets — $140,00010%0 wallets — $150,00010%0 wallets — $160,0008%0 wallets — $170,0006%0 wallets — $180,0006%0 wallets —Downside risk levels. YES ▲ here means wallets think Bitcoin will touch this price at some point during 2026 — even if it recovers after. NO ▼ means they don't think it will drop that low.
$55,00066%0 wallets — $45,00044%1 wallets ▼ NO $35,00024%1 wallets ▲ YES $25,00013%0 wallets — $15,0006%1 wallets ▼ NOThis page updates every 6 hours as wallet positions and market prices change. Total volume across all brackets: $16.8M. Last updated: Apr 13, 2026 16:55 UTC.
How do we track wallets? · See all 162 alpha wallets · What is an AI Verdict?