Smart money positioning across 22 price brackets. 5 alpha wallets tracked. $23.3M total volume.
Where will Bitcoin finish 2026? Polymarket breaks this question into 22 separate brackets — each one a real-money market. We pulled them onto one page and overlaid alpha wallet data, so you can see where smart money stands at every price level.
5 alpha wallets are tracked across these brackets. The strongest signal: 2 wallets positioned NO at $40,000. Not every bracket has wallet activity — where you see zeros, smart money hasn't taken a position yet. That's data too.
Alpha wallets are on-chain addresses with 85%+ accuracy on resolved prediction markets. We track 84 of them. When they move — it's signal, not noise. How it works →
Each row = a price target. The bar = market probability (what all traders collectively think). The wallet count = how many alpha wallets have taken a position. YES ▲ means they think Bitcoin will reach this price by end of 2026. NO ▼ means they're betting against it — they don't think it will get there.
$65,00084%0 wallets — $67,50048%0 wallets — $70,00022%0 wallets — $70,00074%0 wallets — $72,50010%0 wallets — $75,0005%0 wallets — $75,00052%0 wallets — $90,00018%0 wallets — $95,00012%0 wallets — $100,00010%0 wallets — $110,0006%0 wallets —Downside risk levels. YES ▲ here means wallets think Bitcoin will touch this price at some point during 2026 — even if it recovers after. NO ▼ means they don't think it will drop that low.
$60,00042%0 wallets — $57,50022%0 wallets — $55,00060%0 wallets — $55,00012%0 wallets — $52,5006%0 wallets — $50,00042%1 wallets ▼ NO $45,00030%1 wallets ▼ NO $40,00024%2 wallets ▼ NO $35,00012%0 wallets — $30,00010%1 wallets ▼ NO $25,0006%0 wallets —This page updates every 6 hours as wallet positions and market prices change. Total volume across all brackets: $23.3M.
How do we track wallets? · See all 84 alpha wallets · What is an AI Verdict?