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Resolves: Jun 2026 30 days left Volume: $276K

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

YES
92c
NO
8c

Prediction markets put the probability at 92%: US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (92% YES).

Currently at 92%

Traded on Polymarket — $276K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 92c YES with $276K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 5/5 AI models agree YES. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.
CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT
HOLD

Smart money wallets positioned NO, but 5/6 models estimate YES. Signals conflict — waiting for consolidation.

— TARGET YIELD

5 of 6 Models Agree: YES

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelYES98c—
MATH Compound SignalYES68c—
AI Claude AnalysisYES90c
55%
AI DeepSeek Quant???68c
45%
AI Gemini FlashYES85c
65%
AI Kimi MacroYES83c
75%

5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value below market (68–98c vs 92c). Kimi Macro leads with 75% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 85c — market prices it at 92c. 7-point gap supports NO.

Why One Model Is Uncertain: DeepSeek Quant at 68c — Volume is moderate at $276K but tracked wallet data is extremely thin (1 wallet, 0 tier-1), making PIN Model's 98% fair value unreliable ...

1 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money positioning is thin: a single wallet bought YES at the top of the range, signaling late entry rather than early conviction. Despite the NO-dominant flow flag, the absence of tracked NO positions means this 92c print reflects market momentum more than informed directional alpha.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x44c1..c1MMYES$35.7K0%
See all 80 alpha wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

No Positions Are Currently in Profit

The lone tracked wallet entered YES at 92c, matching the current price exactly, leaving the position flat with no realized edge. With 0% of YES in profit and no NO exposure tracked, there is no conviction-based support cushioning the price — any drift lower would immediately put the position underwater.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
0% in profit

Polymarket: 92c YES — $276K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 92c with $276K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 85c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket92c$276K
Our Model85c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 92% YES with $276K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 85c YES. 5 models agree on direction.