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Week 16, 2026: graded AI verdicts

6 of the 42 tracked markets that resolved in week 16 (2026-04-13 – 2026-04-19) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 2 of 2; 4 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 2 of 2 BUY verdicts hit (100%), ROI +7.5% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

2 / 2
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (100%) · 4 HOLD, no entry
+7.5%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (2 calls, +$151 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-04-13 – 2026-04-19

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?2026-04-19
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?2026-04-19
NO
HOLD · no entry
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?2026-04-19
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?2026-04-16
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?2026-04-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?2026-04-15
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75

36 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

2 / 2
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (100%) · 4 HOLD, no entry
+7.5%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (2 calls, +$151 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Politics1 / 1
Sports1 / 1
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 66 resolved markets without a verdict, 0 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 4 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W16.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.