Week 29, 2026: graded AI verdicts

7 of the 37 tracked markets that resolved in week 29 (2026-07-13 – 2026-07-19) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 3 of 6; 1 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 160 of 239 BUY verdicts hit (67%), ROI -6.2% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

3 / 6

BUY verdicts hit the outcome (50%) · 1 HOLD, no entry

-40.7%

ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (6 calls, −$2,442 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-07-13 – 2026-07-19

Market

Outcome

AI verdict

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?2026-07-18

NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?2026-07-16

NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?2026-07-16

NO ✓BUY NO @ 79¢ · +$266

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-07-16

HOLD · no entry

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-07-15

YES ×BUY YES @ 17¢ · −$1,000

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?2026-07-13

YES

NO ×BUY NO @ 77¢ · −$1,000

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?2026-07-13

YES

NO ×BUY NO @ 53¢ · −$1,000

30 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

160 / 239

BUY verdicts hit the outcome (67%) · 146 HOLD, no entry

-6.2%

ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (239 calls, −$14,756 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

Category	BUY verdicts hit
Other	58 / 79
Geopolitics	46 / 66
Politics	31 / 42
Sports	21 / 36
Economics	3 / 8
Crypto	1 / 7
Science	0 / 1

Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 518 resolved markets without a verdict, 1 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 146 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W29.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.