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Week 43, 2026: graded AI verdicts

Week 2026-W43 (2026-10-19 to 2026-10-25). Tracked markets resolved this week: 14, of which 10 had an AI verdict frozen before the close; the rest are not graded. BUY verdicts this week: 6 of 7 hit the outcome; 3 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative: 263 of 368 BUY verdicts hit (71%), ROI +0.3% with $1,000 on each call held to resolution, 203 HOLD not counted, 164 BUY verdicts still open.

6 / 7
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (86%) · 3 HOLD, no entry
-0.3%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (7 calls, −$18 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-10-19 – 2026-10-25

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?2026-10-25
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?2026-10-24
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?2026-10-24
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?2026-10-24
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 88¢ · +$136
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?2026-10-23
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?2026-10-23
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?2026-10-23
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 62¢ · −$1,000
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?2026-10-22
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 93¢ · +$75
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?2026-10-21
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?2026-10-20
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 69¢ · +$449

4 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

263 / 368
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (71%) · 203 HOLD, no entry
+0.3%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (368 calls, +$1,197 total)

164 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Other88 / 117
Geopolitics85 / 112
Politics46 / 62
Sports22 / 37
Economics13 / 22
Crypto8 / 16
Science1 / 2
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 825 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 203 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W43.json.

Generated 2026-10-26 07:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.