Week 26, 2026: graded AI verdicts

10 of the 53 tracked markets that resolved in week 26 (2026-06-22 – 2026-06-28) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 2 of 5; 5 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 123 of 195 BUY verdicts hit (63%), ROI -8.5% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

2 / 5

BUY verdicts hit the outcome (40%) · 5 HOLD, no entry

-50.3%

ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (5 calls, −$2,513 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-06-22 – 2026-06-28

Market

Outcome

AI verdict

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?2026-06-26

YES

HOLD · no entry

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?2026-06-25

YES

HOLD · no entry

Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-06-25

YES

NO ×BUY NO @ 42¢ · −$1,000

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?2026-06-24

HOLD · no entry

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?2026-06-24

YES

HOLD · no entry

Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?2026-06-24

YES

YES ✓BUY YES @ 78¢ · +$282

Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?2026-06-24

YES ×BUY YES @ 92¢ · −$1,000

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?2026-06-23

NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205

Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?2026-06-22

HOLD · no entry

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?2026-06-22

YES

NO ×BUY NO @ 82¢ · −$1,000

43 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

123 / 195

BUY verdicts hit the outcome (63%) · 114 HOLD, no entry

-8.5%

ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (195 calls, −$16,608 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

Category	BUY verdicts hit
Other	42 / 62
Geopolitics	33 / 49
Politics	26 / 36
Sports	19 / 33
Economics	2 / 7
Crypto	1 / 7
Science	0 / 1

Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 362 resolved markets without a verdict, 1 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 114 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W26.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.