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Week 42, 2026: graded AI verdicts

Week 2026-W42 (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-18). Tracked markets resolved this week: 15, of which 11 had an AI verdict frozen before the close; the rest are not graded. BUY verdicts this week: 6 of 7 hit the outcome; 4 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative: 257 of 361 BUY verdicts hit (71%), ROI +0.3% with $1,000 on each call held to resolution, 200 HOLD not counted, 133 BUY verdicts still open.

6 / 7
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (86%) · 4 HOLD, no entry
-2.4%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (7 calls, −$165 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-10-12 – 2026-10-18

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?2026-10-18
YES
HOLD · no entry
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?2026-10-16
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 75¢ · −$1,000
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?2026-10-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?2026-10-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 87¢ · +$149
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?2026-10-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?2026-10-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 87¢ · +$149
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?2026-10-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?2026-10-16
YES
HOLD · no entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?2026-10-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?2026-10-15
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 80¢ · +$250
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?2026-10-12
YES
HOLD · no entry

4 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

257 / 361
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (71%) · 200 HOLD, no entry
+0.3%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (361 calls, +$1,215 total)

133 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Other87 / 115
Geopolitics82 / 109
Politics44 / 60
Sports22 / 37
Economics13 / 22
Crypto8 / 16
Science1 / 2
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 821 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 200 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W42.json.

Generated 2026-10-19 06:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.