Week 36, 2026: graded scoreboard

11 tracked markets resolved in week 36 (2026-08-31 – 2026-09-06). No market this week had a pre-resolution wallet snapshot; no pre-resolution AI verdicts were graded this week. Cumulative record: smart money 32 of 58, AI verdicts 10 of 12, across 356 resolved markets. Markets without a pre-resolution record are excluded, not hidden.

11 resolved · none had a pre-close record, so nothing to grade — this week.

Markets resolved 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-06

None of the markets that resolved this week had a wallet snapshot or a frozen verdict on file before they closed, so none of them is graded — they appear here for completeness only. Grading of new resolutions starts with the verdicts frozen from 2026-09-03.

ResolvedMarketOutcomeSmart moneyAI verdict
2026-09-02Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland GuardiansNOnot recorded before closenot recorded before close
2026-09-02New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay RaysNOnot recorded before closenot recorded before close
2026-09-02US Open WTA: Zeynep Sonmez vs Coco GauffNOnot recorded before closenot recorded before close
2026-09-02AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?YESnot recorded before closenot recorded before close
2026-09-01US Open WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Reese BrantmeierYESnot recorded before closenot recorded before close
2026-08-31US Open ATP: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Karen KhachanovNOnot recorded before closenot recorded before close
2026-08-31US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry WendelkenYESnot recorded before closenot recorded before close
2026-08-31US Open ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Stan WawrinkaYESnot recorded before closenot recorded before close
2026-08-31US Open WTA: Sloane Stephens vs Clara TausonYESnot recorded before closenot recorded before close
2026-08-31US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro TabiloNOnot recorded before closenot recorded before close
2026-08-31US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin RoyerYESnot recorded before closenot recorded before close

Latest graded markets (all weeks)

The most recent markets that DID have a pre-close record — hits and misses as they were called.

ResolvedMarketOutcomeSmart moneyAI verdict
2026-07-12Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?NONO ✓NO ✓
2026-06-17Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?YESNO ×not recorded before close
2026-05-27Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?YESNO ×YES ✓
2026-05-15Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?YESNO ×NO ×
2026-04-28No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?YESYES ✓YES ✓
2026-04-28Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?NONO ✓YES ×
2026-04-28Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?YESNO ×YES ✓
2026-04-26Will the Ottawa Senators win the Eastern Conference?NONO ✓NO ✓
2026-04-25Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?YESNO ×YES ✓
2026-04-25Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?NOYES ×not recorded before close
2026-04-25Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?YESYES ✓YES ✓
2026-04-25Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?YESYES ✓YES ✓
2026-04-23Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?YESYES ✓YES ✓
2026-04-21Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?NONO ✓not recorded before close
2026-04-21Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?NOYES ×not recorded before close

Cumulative record

32 / 58
Smart money: calls matched the outcome (55%)
−$327
$100 on each smart-money call, held to resolution (58 calls, -5.6% per call)
10 / 12
AI verdict: calls matched the outcome (83%)
+$394
$100 on each AI-verdict call, held to resolution (12 calls, +32.9% per call)
356
markets resolved in total
CategorySmart money matchedAI verdict matched
Sports19 / 367 / 8
Other4 / 110 / 1
Geopolitics3 / 52 / 2
Economics2 / 21 / 1
Science2 / 20 / 0
Politics1 / 10 / 0
Crypto1 / 10 / 0
Method. A verdict counts only if it was frozen before the market resolved (data/radar/verdicts). The smart-money side is the dominant side of the tracked wallets in the last snapshot taken before the close. INVALID resolutions and markets without a pre-resolution record are excluded and counted above. Both series grow as markets resolve; nothing is back-filled from later data. Excluded so far: 2 invalid/unknown outcomes, 342 markets without a pre-resolution verdict, 296 without a wallet snapshot. Raw data: 2026-W36.json.

Generated 2026-09-02 18:28 UTC. Wallet tiers are recomputed daily from resolved-market accuracy; verdicts are frozen when published.