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Week 36, 2026: graded AI verdicts

Tracked prediction markets that resolved during the week of 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-06: 71. Of those, 21 had an AI verdict frozen before the market closed; the remaining markets are not graded. This week, 18 of 18 BUY verdicts hit the outcome. There were also 3 HOLD verdicts, which are not counted as calls. Cumulatively, 201 of 289 BUY verdicts have hit the outcome, a rate of 70%. ROI stands at -2.3%, based on $1,000 placed on each call and held to resolution. A further 164 HOLD verdicts are not counted, and 112 BUY verdicts are still open.

18 / 18
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (100%) · 3 HOLD, no entry
+23.0%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (18 calls, +$4,132 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-06

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?2026-09-04
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by Au2026-09-02
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 312026-09-01
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 84¢ · +$190
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 71¢ · +$408
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by Au2026-09-01
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 69¢ · +$449
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 87¢ · +$149
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 72¢ · +$389
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 60¢ · +$667
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 73¢ · +$370
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?2026-08-31
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?2026-08-31
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 77¢ · +$299

50 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

201 / 289
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (70%) · 164 HOLD, no entry
-2.3%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (289 calls, −$6,685 total)

112 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Other70 / 93
Geopolitics63 / 87
Politics37 / 49
Sports22 / 37
Economics6 / 12
Crypto3 / 10
Science0 / 1
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 757 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 164 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W36.json.

Generated 2026-09-07 06:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.