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Week 38, 2026: graded AI verdicts

Week 2026-W38 (2026-09-14 to 2026-09-20). Tracked markets resolved this week: 26, of which 16 had an AI verdict frozen before the close; the rest are not graded. BUY verdicts this week: 7 of 10 hit the outcome; 6 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative: 213 of 305 BUY verdicts hit (70%), ROI -0.2% with $1,000 on each call held to resolution, 173 HOLD not counted, 109 BUY verdicts still open.

7 / 10
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (70%) · 6 HOLD, no entry
+61.7%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (10 calls, +$6,167 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-09-14 – 2026-09-20

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?2026-09-20
YES
HOLD · no entry
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?2026-09-17
YES
HOLD · no entry
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?2026-09-17
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 78¢ · +$282
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?2026-09-16
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 63¢ · −$1,000
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?2026-09-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 60¢ · +$667
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?2026-09-16
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 53¢ · −$1,000
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?2026-09-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 46¢ · +$1,174
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?2026-09-16
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 59¢ · −$1,000
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?2026-09-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?2026-09-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 47¢ · +$1,128
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?2026-09-16
YES
HOLD · no entry
Fed rate hike in 2026?2026-09-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 15¢ · +$5,667
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?2026-09-15
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 86¢ · +$163
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?2026-09-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?2026-09-15
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?2026-09-14
YES
HOLD · no entry

10 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

213 / 305
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (70%) · 173 HOLD, no entry
-0.2%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (305 calls, −$488 total)

109 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Other74 / 97
Geopolitics65 / 89
Politics38 / 50
Sports22 / 37
Economics10 / 19
Crypto4 / 12
Science0 / 1
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 790 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 173 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W38.json.

Generated 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.