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Week 39, 2026: graded AI verdicts

For week 2026-W39 (September 21 to September 27), 26 tracked markets resolved. Of those, 18 had an AI verdict frozen before the market closed; the remaining 8 are not graded. This week, 8 of 11 BUY verdicts hit the outcome. The 7 HOLD verdicts are not calls and are not counted. Cumulatively, 221 of 316 BUY verdicts have hit the outcome, or 70%. With $1,000 placed on each call and held to resolution, that works out to an ROI of +0.5%. Another 180 HOLD verdicts are not counted, and 108 BUY verdicts are still open and awaiting resolution.

8 / 11
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (73%) · 7 HOLD, no entry
+19.0%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (11 calls, +$2,095 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-09-21 – 2026-09-27

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?2026-09-27
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 87¢ · +$149
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?2026-09-27
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?2026-09-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?2026-09-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?2026-09-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?2026-09-24
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 10¢ · −$1,000
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?2026-09-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?2026-09-22
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?2026-09-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 81¢ · +$235
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?2026-09-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 22¢ · +$3,545
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?2026-09-22
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?2026-09-22
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 44¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?2026-09-22
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 61¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?2026-09-22
YES
HOLD · no entry
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?2026-09-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?2026-09-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?2026-09-21
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 65¢ · +$538
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?2026-09-21
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205

8 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

221 / 316
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (70%) · 180 HOLD, no entry
+0.5%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (316 calls, +$1,608 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Geopolitics71 / 98
Other74 / 97
Politics40 / 52
Sports22 / 37
Economics10 / 19
Crypto4 / 12
Science0 / 1
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 798 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 180 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W39.json.

Generated 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.