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Week 31, 2026: graded AI verdicts

20 of the 46 tracked markets that resolved in week 31 (2026-07-27 – 2026-08-02) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 11 of 12; 7 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 172 of 254 BUY verdicts hit (68%), ROI -3.9% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

11 / 12
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (92%) · 7 HOLD, no entry
+16.2%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (12 calls, +$1,942 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-07-27 – 2026-08-02

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?2026-08-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 56¢ · +$786
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?2026-08-01
INVALID
NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 82¢ · +$220
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?2026-07-31
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?2026-07-29
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?2026-07-29
NO
HOLD · no entry
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?2026-07-29
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?2026-07-29
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 79¢ · +$266
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?2026-07-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 79¢ · +$266
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?2026-07-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 78¢ · +$282
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?2026-07-27
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 76¢ · +$316
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?2026-07-27
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?2026-07-27
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?2026-07-27
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 48¢ · −$1,000

26 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

172 / 254
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (68%) · 155 HOLD, no entry
-3.9%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (254 calls, −$9,932 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Other60 / 83
Geopolitics50 / 71
Politics33 / 44
Sports22 / 37
Economics6 / 11
Crypto1 / 7
Science0 / 1
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 574 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 155 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W31.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.