Week 41, 2026: graded AI verdicts
Week 2026-W41 (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-11). Tracked markets resolved this week: 27, of which 22 had an AI verdict frozen before the close; the rest are not graded. BUY verdicts this week: 7 of 14 hit the outcome; 8 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative: 251 of 354 BUY verdicts hit (71%), ROI +0.4% with $1,000 on each call held to resolution, 196 HOLD not counted, 129 BUY verdicts still open.
7 / 14
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (50%) · 8 HOLD, no entry
-34.2%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (14 calls, −$4,784 total)
Verdicts resolved 2026-10-05 – 2026-10-11
Market
Outcome
AI verdict
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 70¢ · +$429
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian pres2026-10-05
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 86¢ · −$1,000
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidentia2026-10-05
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 74¢ · −$1,000
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 71¢ · −$1,000
NO
HOLD · no entry
5 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.
Cumulative record
251 / 354
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (71%) · 196 HOLD, no entry
+0.4%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (354 calls, +$1,380 total)
129 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.
| Category | BUY verdicts hit |
|---|---|
| Other | 87 / 114 |
| Geopolitics | 78 / 105 |
| Politics | 43 / 59 |
| Sports | 22 / 37 |
| Economics | 12 / 21 |
| Crypto | 8 / 16 |
| Science | 1 / 2 |
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 817 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 196 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W41.json.
Generated 2026-10-12 06:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.