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Week 21, 2026: graded AI verdicts

30 of the 55 tracked markets that resolved in week 21 (2026-05-18 – 2026-05-24) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 12 of 20; 10 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 63 of 99 BUY verdicts hit (64%), ROI -17.5% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

12 / 20
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (60%) · 10 HOLD, no entry
-3.7%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (20 calls, −$748 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-05-18 – 2026-05-24

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?2026-05-24
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?2026-05-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?2026-05-24
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 47¢ · +$1,128
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?2026-05-24
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 37¢ · −$1,000
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?2026-05-24
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?2026-05-24
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 28¢ · +$2,571
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?2026-05-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-05-24
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-05-23
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 35¢ · −$1,000
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-05-23
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?2026-05-23
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?2026-05-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?2026-05-22
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 76¢ · −$1,000
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?2026-05-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?2026-05-20
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 74¢ · −$1,000
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?2026-05-20
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?2026-05-20
NO
HOLD · no entry
Chirayu Rana sued?2026-05-20
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 32¢ · −$1,000
Will Putin visit China by May 31?2026-05-20
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?2026-05-20
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 88¢ · +$136
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?2026-05-20
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 77¢ · −$1,000
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?2026-05-20
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?2026-05-20
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 60¢ · +$667
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?2026-05-20
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 60¢ · +$667
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?2026-05-19
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 81¢ · +$235
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?2026-05-19
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference?2026-05-19
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026-05-18
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 6¢ · −$1,000
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17?2026-05-18
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 70¢ · −$1,000
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?2026-05-18
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 45¢ · +$1,222

25 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

63 / 99
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (64%) · 66 HOLD, no entry
-17.5%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (99 calls, −$17,288 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Other23 / 32
Geopolitics14 / 25
Politics13 / 18
Sports13 / 18
Economics0 / 3
Crypto0 / 3
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 162 resolved markets without a verdict, 0 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 66 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W21.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.