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Week 40, 2026: graded AI verdicts

This is the scoreboard for week 2026-W40, covering 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04. Forty-six tracked markets resolved this week. Of those, 32 had an AI verdict frozen before the market closed; the remaining 14 are not graded. Among this week's BUY verdicts, 23 of 24 hit the outcome. There were also 8 HOLD verdicts, which are not calls and are not scored. Cumulatively, 244 of 340 BUY verdicts have hit the outcome, which is 72%. Measured with $1,000 placed on each call and held to resolution, the ROI stands at +1.8%. A further 188 HOLD verdicts are not counted, and 126 BUY verdicts are still open and awaiting resolution.

23 / 24
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (96%) · 8 HOLD, no entry
+19.0%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (24 calls, +$4,557 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-09-28 – 2026-10-04

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?2026-10-04
NO
HOLD · no entry
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?2026-10-02
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 60¢ · +$667
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 64¢ · +$562
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 84¢ · +$190
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 50¢ · +$1,000
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 74¢ · +$351
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 20262026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 81¢ · +$235
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will XRP reach $1.80 in September?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 84¢ · +$190
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 87¢ · +$149
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?2026-09-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?2026-09-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?2026-09-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 93¢ · +$75
Trump renames AI by September 30?2026-09-29
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 71¢ · −$1,000
Trump renames AI by December 31?2026-09-29
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 70¢ · +$429

14 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

244 / 340
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (72%) · 188 HOLD, no entry
+1.8%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (340 calls, +$6,165 total)

126 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Other82 / 105
Geopolitics77 / 104
Politics42 / 55
Sports22 / 37
Economics12 / 21
Crypto8 / 16
Science1 / 2
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 812 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 188 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W40.json.

Generated 2026-10-05 06:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.