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Week 25, 2026: graded AI verdicts

31 of the 84 tracked markets that resolved in week 25 (2026-06-15 – 2026-06-21) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 9 of 19; 12 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 121 of 190 BUY verdicts hit (64%), ROI -7.4% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

9 / 19
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (47%) · 12 HOLD, no entry
-10.5%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (19 calls, −$1,986 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-06-15 – 2026-06-21

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?2026-06-21
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 71¢ · +$408
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?2026-06-21
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?2026-06-21
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?2026-06-21
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 92¢ · −$1,000
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?2026-06-20
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 35¢ · −$1,000
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-06-20
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?2026-06-20
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 40¢ · −$1,000
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?2026-06-19
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 53¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 77¢ · +$299
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 56¢ · +$786
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 71¢ · +$408
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 52¢ · −$1,000
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?2026-06-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?2026-06-17
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 9¢ · −$1,000
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?2026-06-17
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?2026-06-17
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 23¢ · +$3,348
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?2026-06-17
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 43¢ · −$1,000
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 202026-06-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 58¢ · +$724
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?2026-06-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?2026-06-15
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?2026-06-15
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 76¢ · −$1,000
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?2026-06-15
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 45¢ · +$1,222
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?2026-06-15
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 59¢ · +$695
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?2026-06-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?2026-06-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?2026-06-15
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 23¢ · −$1,000
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-06-15
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 35¢ · −$1,000
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?2026-06-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?2026-06-15
YES
HOLD · no entry

53 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

121 / 190
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (64%) · 109 HOLD, no entry
-7.4%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (190 calls, −$14,095 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Other41 / 61
Geopolitics33 / 48
Politics26 / 35
Sports18 / 31
Economics2 / 7
Crypto1 / 7
Science0 / 1
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 319 resolved markets without a verdict, 1 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 109 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W25.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.