Week 44, 2026: graded AI verdicts
Week 2026-W44 (2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01). Tracked markets resolved this week: 65, of which 56 had an AI verdict frozen before the close; the rest are not graded. BUY verdicts this week: 27 of 38 hit the outcome; 18 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative: 290 of 406 BUY verdicts hit (71%), ROI -0.5% with $1,000 on each call held to resolution, 221 HOLD not counted, 157 BUY verdicts still open.
27 / 38
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (71%) · 18 HOLD, no entry
-8.9%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (38 calls, −$3,368 total)
Verdicts resolved 2026-10-26 – 2026-11-01
Market
Outcome
AI verdict
NO
HOLD · no entry
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 82¢ · +$220
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 72¢ · +$389
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 46¢ · −$1,000
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 47¢ · −$1,000
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 54¢ · +$852
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
NO
HOLD · no entry
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 71¢ · +$408
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 87¢ · +$149
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele2026-10-26
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2026-10-26
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2026-10-26
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 41¢ · −$1,000
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary elec2026-10-26
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential el2026-10-26
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the U2026-10-26
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 69¢ · +$449
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 40¢ · −$1,000
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 61¢ · −$1,000
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 66¢ · −$1,000
9 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.
Cumulative record
290 / 406
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (71%) · 221 HOLD, no entry
-0.5%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (406 calls, −$2,171 total)
157 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.
| Category | BUY verdicts hit |
|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 97 / 126 |
| Other | 93 / 124 |
| Politics | 50 / 72 |
| Sports | 22 / 37 |
| Economics | 18 / 28 |
| Crypto | 9 / 17 |
| Science | 1 / 2 |
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 834 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 221 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W44.json.
Generated 2026-11-02 07:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.