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Week 20, 2026: graded AI verdicts

33 of the 50 tracked markets that resolved in week 20 (2026-05-11 – 2026-05-17) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 14 of 17; 16 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 51 of 79 BUY verdicts hit (65%), ROI -20.9% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

14 / 17
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (82%) · 16 HOLD, no entry
+2.2%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (17 calls, +$375 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-05-11 – 2026-05-17

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will France win Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 63¢ · +$587
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 70¢ · +$429
Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?2026-05-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?2026-05-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-05-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?2026-05-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 74¢ · +$351
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?2026-05-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?2026-05-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?2026-05-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?2026-05-16
YES
HOLD · no entry
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?2026-05-16
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 38¢ · −$1,000
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?2026-05-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Western Conference?2026-05-15
NO
HOLD · no entry
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?2026-05-15
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?2026-05-14
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?2026-05-14
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will the Minnesota Wild win the Western Conference?2026-05-14
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?2026-05-14
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?2026-05-14
YES
HOLD · no entry
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?2026-05-14
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?2026-05-14
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?2026-05-13
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?2026-05-12
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 79¢ · +$266
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?2026-05-12
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?2026-05-12
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 38¢ · −$1,000
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?2026-05-12
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 73¢ · −$1,000
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?2026-05-12
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 65¢ · +$538
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?2026-05-12
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?2026-05-12
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99

17 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

51 / 79
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (65%) · 56 HOLD, no entry
-20.9%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (79 calls, −$16,540 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Geopolitics12 / 23
Other17 / 21
Sports11 / 15
Politics11 / 15
Crypto0 / 3
Economics0 / 2
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 137 resolved markets without a verdict, 0 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 56 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W20.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.